CBD Trends — THE POLLINATR

On one end of the spectrum, people think CBD is the antidote to society's biggest plague—anxiety—and on the other end, it's one big placebo. So which one is it—fantasy or facade?

It's a particularly curious trend due to its rapid adoption and expansion nearly overnight, while still being in such nascent stages of regulations. As we're rounding our quarantine corner to 4/20, the unofficial marijuana holiday, what's going on with CBD?

To understand CBD requires an understanding of Cannabis aka weed. Cannabis is made up of two main compounds—THC, the psychoactive element that makes people high, and CBD or Cannabidiol. THC and CBD are two of at least 113 cannabinoids identified in cannabis. Hemp plants, a cousin of marijuana, contain a much higher concentration of CBD and very little to no THC.

CBD by the numbers—the reported scale varies by source (here, here, here and here) but all of them are predicting growth:

Size: The global CBD market was valued at $4.6B in 2018
Growth: A 22% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) resulting in a market size of ~$19B by 2025
Market: North America accounts for the majority of market share (~70%)

The top use cases for CBD focus on mental health but it is also used for a variety of other symptoms including joint pain, skincare and spiritual use as reported by Quartz.

So does CBD work? The jury's still out.

Interestingly, our bodies have what's called the ECS, or endocannabinoid system, which plays a role in regulating a range of functions and processes, including sleep, mood, appetite, memory and reproduction/fertility. When THC or CBD enters our bodies, it binds to the receptors in our ECS. The way THC binds to the ECS and its effects are clear, but scientists are still working out how CBD affects us.

Quartz quotes Ziva Cooper, the research director at the University of California-Los Angeles Cannabis Research Initiative, saying that “There really isn’t very much evidence in humans with respect to its effectiveness, and when I say evidence in humans, I’m really talking about rigorous, double-blind placebo-controlled studies. There’s also not much research showing that cannabidiol doesn’t work for things. There is just a general lack of studies—period.”

Initial testing is starting to take place on rats and if you're looking to go down a somewhat disturbing rodent hole, read about more of that here.

One CBD drug that has been rigorously tested has proven to reduce the number of seizures kids with epilepsy had by about half for 40% of the tested patients.

Tested or not, the majority of people feel pretty strongly that CBD is effective, as seen from the chart below.

Is CBD legal? Sometimes.

The tides are turning for Mary Jane—62% of the US is in favor of legalizing marijuana, up from 16% in 1990 (the height of the War on Drugs). Currently, 11 states plus D.C. have fully legalized marijuana for recreational use and over half the states have legalized medical marijuana use.

With the passing of the 2018 farm bill, CBD sourced from hemp was legalized on a federal level but states have the final say, which is why South Dakota, Idaho and Nebraska have put the kibosh on the hashish. However, the legality of cannabis-sourced-CBD varies based on state and medical or recreational use, full list here.

Although the farm bill was a huge win, the future of CBD is a bit hazy—in May 2019 (the peak of the blue line in the chart below) the FDA met to discuss CBD regulations, which prompted more questions than answers. You can see this had a direct negative impact on search interest for CBD. In the interim, some CBD companies are repositioning their product to be considered a supplement or vitamin.

Search interest for cannabis has been growing but has recently leveled out. However, knowing these plants are a smokin' hot topic for the 2020 elections my guess is interest for both cannabis and CBD will increase in the latter part of the year.

Regulated or not, the people want their CBD—2/3 of the US say they'd try a CBD product. So what's contributed to this meteoric rise?

Lots of factors, but most notably the rise of the health and wellness movement, which is directly tied to our anxiety-riddled country. Makes sense why CBD is one of the few industries that has benefited from our current global pandemic.

Within this movement there seems to be an increasing acceptance of alternative approaches for ailments—the complementary and alternative medicine market has a projected CAGR of 20% by 2027 and products like essential oils are expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.7% by 2026.

Additionally, there's a growing open-mindedness around introspective activities like therapy, meditation and yoga.

From a food standpoint, many have returned back to the caveman lifestyle by going paleo, which is all about only putting in your body what you can hunt and gather. With this renewed love for plant-based diets, it's no surprise that it has extended to plants you consume in different ways, like CBD.

A fresh strain of plant fan is growing—the new-age wellness lover is starkly juxtaposed with the pothead stereotype. They're fit, beautiful, cerebral, a bit edgy, cool, kinda hippy (but in a good way), typically wealthy and sometimes elitist. Not the delinquent pothead skipping school and nomming on some munchies.

Our girl Gwyneth Paltrow is the shining face of wellness and her new show The Goop Lab is the perfect representation of this. Each episode explores a different topic ranging from "psychedelics, energy work and other challenging wellness topics."

It's not just a girl thing though. Burly man Joe Rogan, comedian and UFC commentator whose extremely popular podcast discusses topics from aliens to meditation, recently accepted a sponsorship deal with a big CBD company, cbdMD.

What other cannabis trends do we have to expect for the upcoming years?

CBD already infiltrated beauty, beverages and food. The next trend on the horizon includes cannabis gyms, "where gymgoers can access cannabis-friendly fitness facilities", CB Insights reports.

Ganja sommeliers and cannabis consultants are cropping up "as cannabis culture becomes increasingly refined, experts are offering connoisseurship services to discerning customers."

Although 4/20 festivals have been around for a while, a more mainstream experience is developing. JWT reports that "new festivals and immersive events are bringing together brands, experts, first-timers, and seasoned enthusiasts for education, entertainment and networking. Broccoli magazine’s In Bloom festival kicked off in May 2019 in Portland, Oregon, with cannabis-themed art and musical performances, workshops, panel discussions and tastings."

There is even a CBD infused activewear brand, Acabada, that has developed a "highlife" line dedicated to this substance that will act as a "supplementary delivery system".

Additionally, other ways to consume CBD will take root in the form of syrup, lollipops, diffusion, condiments and spray.

There's already a new, cooler non-psychoactive cannabinoid in town, CBG. There's even less research available for CBG than for CBD but it is said to have different effects like helping with IBS and bacterial infections.

I wonder if this newfound experimental mindset that's been developed will expand to an acceptance of other natural substances like Psilocybin, aka mushrooms.

What does this all mean? Although the effects of CBD are still TBD, there's a new cultural acceptance of treating ailments alternatively and exploring the mind, body and soul in deeper ways. It's important for brands to understand this new consumer as society's anxiety continues to increase.